MULTIPLE STATES: Latest Update

Here is the latest round-up from over at dailykos.com by kos. Wouldn't it be nice to say goodbye to Santorum. Polls look good for us up in PA. Agreeing with us, kos notes if Chafee switched his party -- he may get another term.

A poll (DSCC, probably) pitting various Democrats against Rick Santorum has generated some buzz in DC political circles. The exact numbers are hazy, but hover in the 52-38 range. The candidates? Bob Casey Jr. at 52 percent, and Santorum at 38. In fact, according to the poll, Casey would beat Rendell in a primary battle. Thankfully, that won't happen as Rendell is firmly focused on reelection to a second term as governor.
Santorum is quite obviously Democratic target numero uno, and there's no doubt that Santorum is far too conservative for Pennsylvania. He belongs more in Oklahoma with Wacky Tom Coburn than in moderate PA.

Retirements

Elsewhere on the Senate map, we've already talked about rumors that Olympia Snowe may be on the verge of retirement. Conrad Burns in Montana is also reportedly seeking a golden parachute (read: K Street firm) as the resurgent Montana Dems gun for the seat. We'll have a GOP open seat in Texas (Hutchinson is running for governor), but given the state of the Texas Democratic Party, that one is likely out of reach. Another GOP open seat in Tennessee (Frist is retiring to run for president) is a better opportunity.

That's four potential open seats on the Republican side. Dems are really hoping to hold down the fort, though they are looking nervously at Maryland's Paul Sarbanes and West Virginia's Robert Byrd. A Byrd retirement, in particular, would be problematic. Corzine is retiring to run for governor, so we'll have a Jersey open seat to defend, which shouldn't be too tough.

Republican Incumbents

As far as GOP incumbents are concerned, Snowe (if she stays put) and RI's Lincoln Chafee are expected to get strong challenges. It seems top Dems are ready to go after their moderates taking a page out of the GOP playbook. Chafee, in particular, is about to be squeezed from all directions. In a hard-blue state, he is already being challenged by Democratic secretary of state Matt Brown from the left, and will face a primary challenge from the right from a Club for Growth-backed candidate. His best survival bet may very well be to switch parties.

Dems are also looking at Ensign in Nevada (Reid would probably love to beat his ass) and Kyl in Arizona. Allen in Virginia could potentially be a top-tier battle if Gov. Mark Warner opts for the Senate rather than a 2008 presidential bid.

Democratic incumbents

As for our incumbents, GOP targets number one and two are MN's Mark Dayton and FL's Bill Nelson. Both of these will be tough races, but assuming Byrd stays put, they should be the only scary races. Stabenow in Michigan and Cantwell in Washington, however, would be races to watch. And we can never rest with our deep-red state senators, like Ben Nelson in Nebraska and Kent Conrad in North Dakota. And there's always Lieberman, which may be facing a primary challenge.

One side effect of losing all our senate races in the South is that we don't have many to defend anymore. Only Florida's Nelson and Robert Byrd qualify, and neither is from a deep-South state.