2006 Outlook
Thanks to 'senate2006' over at MyDD for this early (December) outlook:
+++ Safe Republican +++
Hatch (UT) -- This seat is Hatch's as long as he wants it. If Hatch retires, the only Utah Dem with a prayer is Rep. Jim Matheson. But, Utah Republicans have a very deep bench and even Matheson would face an uphill battle. Safe Republican.
Lugar (IN) -- Lugar is an institution and the Indiana Democratic Party is reeling from the 2004 losses of incumbent Gov. Joe Kernan and incumbent Rep. Baron Hill. Democrats hold just two of the state's nine House seats. Safe Republican.
Thomas (WY) -- Wyoming is a very conservative state. WY Dems only chance: Thomas retires, Repubs nominate a weak candidate like Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dems nominate a strong candidate like Gov. Dave Freudenthal. Warning: an open seat, a strong Dem and a weak Repub doesn't mean victory in an intensely partisan state. Just ask Brad Carson (D-OK). Safe Republican.
+++ Likely Republican +++
Allen (VA) -- Allen is riding high in the national Republican party. He's fresh off a successful tenure as Chair of the NRSC, a strong potential WH '08 candidate and a popular former Governor in a Republican leaning state. If popular Gov. Mark Warner (D) runs, downgrade this seat to "Lean Republican," if he doesn't, upgrade it to "Safe Republican."
DeWine (OH) -- The wide open race to replace controversial, term limited Gov. Bob Taft (R) will be the marquee statewide contest in 2006. Many of Ohio's heavy hitting Dems (like Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, former AG/'98 candidate Lee Fisher, Akron Mayor Don Plusquellic, former Cincinnati Mayor/Talk Show Host Jerry Springer, and Rep. Ted Strickland) are all eyeing the Governor's mansion. If a high profile Dem emerges, downgrade this swing state Senate seat to "Lean Republican."
Ensign (NV) -- Nevada's rapid demographic changes narrowly favor the Dems. But, just like Ohio, many of Nevada's big name Dems are eyeing term limited Gov. Kenny Guinn's job. Ensign is vulnerable if popular Rep. Shelley Berkley takes the plunge.
Kyl (AZ) -- Rumor has it that Kyl will be challenged by State Democratic Chair Jim Pederson. If Pederson runs a good campaign, the nation's eyes will be on this swing state on Election Day as Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) will likely be challenged by popular ex-TV sportscaster, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). Don't underestimate the power of incumbency and Arizona's demographics still slightly favor the Republicans. Likely Republican.
Lott (MS) -- Reports of Lott's demise have been greatly exagerated. Yes, the gaffe that cost him his leadership position hurt his image. But, red Mississippi will send him back to the Senate in 2006. Do racist remarks hurt southern politicians? Ask Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd. Likely Republican.
Snowe (ME) -- Despite being a Republican in blue Maine, Moderate GOP Senator Olympia Snowe should be safe. Gov. John Baldacci (D), Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Rep. Mike Michaud (D) could make the race interesting, but, there's no indication that any of them, or anyone else for that matter, are interested in challenging the popular moderate. If a strong challenger does emerge, downgrade this blue state seat to Lean Republican.
Talent (MO) -- If the Dems field a strong candidate, Freshman Sen. Jim Talent might be in trouble. Fortunately for him, 2004 was a good year for Missouri Repubs as Kerry abandoned the state early, Sen. Kit Bond (R) won big in what was expected to be a close race and the Repubs took back the Governor's mansion. If Ex-Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell or State Auditor/'04 Gubernatorial Nominee Claire McCaskill run, downgrade to Lean Republican.
+++ Lean Republican +++
Burns (MT) -- Deep red Montana is, ever so slightly, trending blue. In 2004, Dems won control over the Montana state Senate and Brian Schweitzer (D) was elected Governor. Gov.-elect Schweitzer gave Burns a run for his money in 2000 and Montana already has one Democratic Senator, Max Baucus. If the riding high Montana Dems nominate a strong candidate, this race could be close, if they don't, upgrade to Likely Republican.
Chafee (RI) -- Moderate GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee could face challenges from the right and the left. Conservatives are unhappy with Chafee's moderate positions and liberals are smelling blood in this blue state. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Matt Brown, Rep. Patrick Kennedy and Rep. James Langevin could pose a formidable challenge to Chafee, especially if he's bruised or defeated in a primary. If Kennedy, gives up a seat on the Appropriations Committee to run against Chafee, downgrade to Toss Up.
Hutchison (open seat TX) -- The good news is that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison will likely leave the Senate to challenge Gov. Rick Perry (R). The bad news is that Texas is increasingly Republican and even a well known Democrat will likely have a tough time overcoming this state's partisanship.
Santorum (PA) -- Democrats would love to defeat this right winger in a lean blue swing state. '04 nominee/ex. Rep. Joe Hoeffel and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer are considered the likely candidates. There's little doubt that both sides will spend millions and this race will come down to the wire. But, I give Santorum the edge because he's a tenacious campaigner and the Dems aren't likely to field an all star challenger.
+++ Toss-Up +++
Frist (open seat TN) -- Can Democrats still win in the South? This race may give us the answer. With Frist retiring to focus on his run for the White House, the media has anointed Rep. Harold Ford (D) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R) as the very early frontrunners in their likely-to-be-contested primaries. Will Ford, the moderate DLC poster boy, be able to win in this red state? We'll see.
+++ Lean Democratic +++
Corzine (open seat NJ) -- Corzine is running for Governor and the field for his Senate seat is wide open. Look for a Democrat to prevail in this blue state, but, in the wild world of New Jersey politics, anything is possible.
Dayton (MN) -- The national GOP has Freshman Sen. Mark Dayton in their cross hairs. Popular Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) has proven himself a winner in a lean Dem district and the GOP is priming him for a run against a vulnerable incumbent. Traditionally blue Minnesota has trended Republican of late, but, remained in Kerry's column in 2004. Lean Democratic.
Kohl (WI) -- If popular former Governor/former HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson enters the race, downgrade to Toss Up. Otherwise, upgrade to Likely Democratic. Kohl has the money to drown just about any challenger.
Nelson (NE) -- Veteran Sen. Ben Nelson should thank President Bush. He tapped his potential 2006 challenger, popular Gov. Mike Johanns, to head the Department of Agriculture. If Rep. Tom Osborne tosses his hat in the ring, Nelson would likely lose, but, there's no indication that Osborne is interested in the Senate seat. Potential Nelson challengers include Attorney General Jon Bruning and Rep.-elect Jeff Fortenberry.
Nelson (FL) -- Veteran Sen. and former Astronaut Bill Nelson is likely to face a tough race in 2006, especially if popular Gov. Jeb Bush decides to run. The Democrats desperately need to keep Florida competitive and would be wise to heavily invest in the Florida Democratic Party. If Nelson loses, and the Democrats lose the open race for Governor, there won't be a single Democrat that holds a statewide office.
Stabenow (MI) -- Word has it that President Bush wants the popular Rep./ex-Sec. of State Candice Miller to challenge Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow in this swing state. Miller is the only politician in state history to win all 83 Michigan counties, and with strong support from the White House, has potential to defeat Stabenow.
+++ Likely Democratic +++
Byrd (WV) -- Despite his liberal record, Sen. Robert Byrd is a West Virginia institution and will have his seat as long as he wants it. If Byrd choses to retire, downgrade this seat to the Toss Up category.
Cantwell (WA) -- Sen. Patti Murray easily won re-election in a sleeper over a formidable opponent. Republicans thought that it would be easier to defeat Murray than Cantwell. If Murray can win easily, Cantwell should cruise to re-election.
Clinton (NY) -- HRC should not be underestimated. She has a top notch campaign team and has been working to improve her reputation amongst even conservative constituents. If Gov. George Pataki or former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani chose to run, downgrade to Lean Democratic. Otherwise, Hillary will coast to victory, well positioned for her WH '08 bid.
Conrad (ND) -- Fellow Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and at large Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) coasted to re-election this year and there's no indication that Conrad won't do the same in 2006.
Feinstein (CA) -- If Feinstein retires, downgrade to Toss Up. Otherwise, she should be able to hold the seat.
Lieberman (CT) -- Neither the right or the left love Lieberman, but, he's a Connecticut institution. He should be able to fend off any primary challenge and will easily defeat whoever the Republicans nominate in this blue state. If he choses to retire, or join President Bush's cabinet, this seat will be in play.
Sarbanes (MD) -- If Sarbanes retires, downgrade to Lean Democratic. If he doesn't retire, he should coast to re-election, if he does, the Maryland Democratic Party has a deep bench and are likely to field a candidate that will hold the seat for the Dems.
+++ Safe Democratic +++
Akaka (HI) -- This seat is Akaka's as long as he wants it. And, he wants it.
Bingaman (NM) -- The Republicans have two politicians capable of winning this seat: Reps. Heather Wilson & Steve Pearce. Both are waiting for either Sen. Bingaman or Sen. Dominici to retire. There's no indication that Bingaman will retire, but, if he does and Wilson/Pearce chose to run, downgrade this seat to Toss Up.
Carper (DE) -- Tom Carper will coast to re-election.
Kennedy (MA) -- If Ted Kennedy wants this Senate seat, it's his. If he doesn't, the Massachusetts Democrats will field a strong candidate to keep this seat blue.
+++ Safe Independent +++
Jeffords (VT) -- Democrats like Jeffords. Jeffords could face opposition from angry Republicans that think he betrayed the party by switching to independent and caucusing with the Democrats, but, in a deep blue state that elected at large socialist Rep. Bernie Sanders (I), he shouldn't worry too much.
http://senate2006.mydd.com/
+++ Safe Republican +++
Hatch (UT) -- This seat is Hatch's as long as he wants it. If Hatch retires, the only Utah Dem with a prayer is Rep. Jim Matheson. But, Utah Republicans have a very deep bench and even Matheson would face an uphill battle. Safe Republican.
Lugar (IN) -- Lugar is an institution and the Indiana Democratic Party is reeling from the 2004 losses of incumbent Gov. Joe Kernan and incumbent Rep. Baron Hill. Democrats hold just two of the state's nine House seats. Safe Republican.
Thomas (WY) -- Wyoming is a very conservative state. WY Dems only chance: Thomas retires, Repubs nominate a weak candidate like Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dems nominate a strong candidate like Gov. Dave Freudenthal. Warning: an open seat, a strong Dem and a weak Repub doesn't mean victory in an intensely partisan state. Just ask Brad Carson (D-OK). Safe Republican.
+++ Likely Republican +++
Allen (VA) -- Allen is riding high in the national Republican party. He's fresh off a successful tenure as Chair of the NRSC, a strong potential WH '08 candidate and a popular former Governor in a Republican leaning state. If popular Gov. Mark Warner (D) runs, downgrade this seat to "Lean Republican," if he doesn't, upgrade it to "Safe Republican."
DeWine (OH) -- The wide open race to replace controversial, term limited Gov. Bob Taft (R) will be the marquee statewide contest in 2006. Many of Ohio's heavy hitting Dems (like Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, former AG/'98 candidate Lee Fisher, Akron Mayor Don Plusquellic, former Cincinnati Mayor/Talk Show Host Jerry Springer, and Rep. Ted Strickland) are all eyeing the Governor's mansion. If a high profile Dem emerges, downgrade this swing state Senate seat to "Lean Republican."
Ensign (NV) -- Nevada's rapid demographic changes narrowly favor the Dems. But, just like Ohio, many of Nevada's big name Dems are eyeing term limited Gov. Kenny Guinn's job. Ensign is vulnerable if popular Rep. Shelley Berkley takes the plunge.
Kyl (AZ) -- Rumor has it that Kyl will be challenged by State Democratic Chair Jim Pederson. If Pederson runs a good campaign, the nation's eyes will be on this swing state on Election Day as Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) will likely be challenged by popular ex-TV sportscaster, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). Don't underestimate the power of incumbency and Arizona's demographics still slightly favor the Republicans. Likely Republican.
Lott (MS) -- Reports of Lott's demise have been greatly exagerated. Yes, the gaffe that cost him his leadership position hurt his image. But, red Mississippi will send him back to the Senate in 2006. Do racist remarks hurt southern politicians? Ask Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd. Likely Republican.
Snowe (ME) -- Despite being a Republican in blue Maine, Moderate GOP Senator Olympia Snowe should be safe. Gov. John Baldacci (D), Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Rep. Mike Michaud (D) could make the race interesting, but, there's no indication that any of them, or anyone else for that matter, are interested in challenging the popular moderate. If a strong challenger does emerge, downgrade this blue state seat to Lean Republican.
Talent (MO) -- If the Dems field a strong candidate, Freshman Sen. Jim Talent might be in trouble. Fortunately for him, 2004 was a good year for Missouri Repubs as Kerry abandoned the state early, Sen. Kit Bond (R) won big in what was expected to be a close race and the Repubs took back the Governor's mansion. If Ex-Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell or State Auditor/'04 Gubernatorial Nominee Claire McCaskill run, downgrade to Lean Republican.
+++ Lean Republican +++
Burns (MT) -- Deep red Montana is, ever so slightly, trending blue. In 2004, Dems won control over the Montana state Senate and Brian Schweitzer (D) was elected Governor. Gov.-elect Schweitzer gave Burns a run for his money in 2000 and Montana already has one Democratic Senator, Max Baucus. If the riding high Montana Dems nominate a strong candidate, this race could be close, if they don't, upgrade to Likely Republican.
Chafee (RI) -- Moderate GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee could face challenges from the right and the left. Conservatives are unhappy with Chafee's moderate positions and liberals are smelling blood in this blue state. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Matt Brown, Rep. Patrick Kennedy and Rep. James Langevin could pose a formidable challenge to Chafee, especially if he's bruised or defeated in a primary. If Kennedy, gives up a seat on the Appropriations Committee to run against Chafee, downgrade to Toss Up.
Hutchison (open seat TX) -- The good news is that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison will likely leave the Senate to challenge Gov. Rick Perry (R). The bad news is that Texas is increasingly Republican and even a well known Democrat will likely have a tough time overcoming this state's partisanship.
Santorum (PA) -- Democrats would love to defeat this right winger in a lean blue swing state. '04 nominee/ex. Rep. Joe Hoeffel and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer are considered the likely candidates. There's little doubt that both sides will spend millions and this race will come down to the wire. But, I give Santorum the edge because he's a tenacious campaigner and the Dems aren't likely to field an all star challenger.
+++ Toss-Up +++
Frist (open seat TN) -- Can Democrats still win in the South? This race may give us the answer. With Frist retiring to focus on his run for the White House, the media has anointed Rep. Harold Ford (D) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R) as the very early frontrunners in their likely-to-be-contested primaries. Will Ford, the moderate DLC poster boy, be able to win in this red state? We'll see.
+++ Lean Democratic +++
Corzine (open seat NJ) -- Corzine is running for Governor and the field for his Senate seat is wide open. Look for a Democrat to prevail in this blue state, but, in the wild world of New Jersey politics, anything is possible.
Dayton (MN) -- The national GOP has Freshman Sen. Mark Dayton in their cross hairs. Popular Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) has proven himself a winner in a lean Dem district and the GOP is priming him for a run against a vulnerable incumbent. Traditionally blue Minnesota has trended Republican of late, but, remained in Kerry's column in 2004. Lean Democratic.
Kohl (WI) -- If popular former Governor/former HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson enters the race, downgrade to Toss Up. Otherwise, upgrade to Likely Democratic. Kohl has the money to drown just about any challenger.
Nelson (NE) -- Veteran Sen. Ben Nelson should thank President Bush. He tapped his potential 2006 challenger, popular Gov. Mike Johanns, to head the Department of Agriculture. If Rep. Tom Osborne tosses his hat in the ring, Nelson would likely lose, but, there's no indication that Osborne is interested in the Senate seat. Potential Nelson challengers include Attorney General Jon Bruning and Rep.-elect Jeff Fortenberry.
Nelson (FL) -- Veteran Sen. and former Astronaut Bill Nelson is likely to face a tough race in 2006, especially if popular Gov. Jeb Bush decides to run. The Democrats desperately need to keep Florida competitive and would be wise to heavily invest in the Florida Democratic Party. If Nelson loses, and the Democrats lose the open race for Governor, there won't be a single Democrat that holds a statewide office.
Stabenow (MI) -- Word has it that President Bush wants the popular Rep./ex-Sec. of State Candice Miller to challenge Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow in this swing state. Miller is the only politician in state history to win all 83 Michigan counties, and with strong support from the White House, has potential to defeat Stabenow.
+++ Likely Democratic +++
Byrd (WV) -- Despite his liberal record, Sen. Robert Byrd is a West Virginia institution and will have his seat as long as he wants it. If Byrd choses to retire, downgrade this seat to the Toss Up category.
Cantwell (WA) -- Sen. Patti Murray easily won re-election in a sleeper over a formidable opponent. Republicans thought that it would be easier to defeat Murray than Cantwell. If Murray can win easily, Cantwell should cruise to re-election.
Clinton (NY) -- HRC should not be underestimated. She has a top notch campaign team and has been working to improve her reputation amongst even conservative constituents. If Gov. George Pataki or former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani chose to run, downgrade to Lean Democratic. Otherwise, Hillary will coast to victory, well positioned for her WH '08 bid.
Conrad (ND) -- Fellow Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and at large Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) coasted to re-election this year and there's no indication that Conrad won't do the same in 2006.
Feinstein (CA) -- If Feinstein retires, downgrade to Toss Up. Otherwise, she should be able to hold the seat.
Lieberman (CT) -- Neither the right or the left love Lieberman, but, he's a Connecticut institution. He should be able to fend off any primary challenge and will easily defeat whoever the Republicans nominate in this blue state. If he choses to retire, or join President Bush's cabinet, this seat will be in play.
Sarbanes (MD) -- If Sarbanes retires, downgrade to Lean Democratic. If he doesn't retire, he should coast to re-election, if he does, the Maryland Democratic Party has a deep bench and are likely to field a candidate that will hold the seat for the Dems.
+++ Safe Democratic +++
Akaka (HI) -- This seat is Akaka's as long as he wants it. And, he wants it.
Bingaman (NM) -- The Republicans have two politicians capable of winning this seat: Reps. Heather Wilson & Steve Pearce. Both are waiting for either Sen. Bingaman or Sen. Dominici to retire. There's no indication that Bingaman will retire, but, if he does and Wilson/Pearce chose to run, downgrade this seat to Toss Up.
Carper (DE) -- Tom Carper will coast to re-election.
Kennedy (MA) -- If Ted Kennedy wants this Senate seat, it's his. If he doesn't, the Massachusetts Democrats will field a strong candidate to keep this seat blue.
+++ Safe Independent +++
Jeffords (VT) -- Democrats like Jeffords. Jeffords could face opposition from angry Republicans that think he betrayed the party by switching to independent and caucusing with the Democrats, but, in a deep blue state that elected at large socialist Rep. Bernie Sanders (I), he shouldn't worry too much.
http://senate2006.mydd.com/
posted by Queen [b]ee at 1:52 PM
1 Comments:
Chafee is representing a state that leans far to the left. Coming under fire from his own party lately, there may actually be some GOPers in RI that go for someone else. He came out against Bush. Republicans these days don't like it when members of their party question their loyalty. He might come under fire from the right for his perceived disloyalty, and from the left cause he has that (R) behind his name.
If he switched parties he would glide to re-election.
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