ND: Conrad brings wind power

Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., said Friday that he has introduced a bill that would give the wind energy industry more incentives to expand than it now receives.

The incentives, known as wind energy production tax credits, give utilities tax breaks based on how many kilowatt-hours they produce.

Currently, the credits are renewed annually by Congress, but delays in renewal have been frequent. The current legislation expires at the end of the year.

Conrad proposes a five-year extension. This could win more jobs for wind-swept North Dakota, he said.

This could reap huge benefits for the state of North Dakota. Conrad's office said, if a single 100-megawatt wind farm were built, the state could reap as much as $187 million in additional economic activity from the construction, and create as many as 2,200 jobs statewide.

Way to go!

WA: Cantwell re-issues her pledge to not accept PAC $

With this task infront of us: we may have to set up fundraising efforts on this site. It's a very noble thing she has pledged and we should support her.


Cantwell is launching an aggressive fund-raising schedule to collect about $13 million.

The former high-tech executive's efforts are made harder by her 2000 promise to refuse money from political-action committees, or PACs.

Cantwell said she is forsaking PAC money as part of her focus on campaign-finance reform, and she wants to spend her time talking to regular Washingtonians instead of D.C. fat cats.

KS: Brownback leaving?!

As Chris Bowers said: Please let this be true.

Speculation reaches us from a well-placed source that President Bush's thoughts may be turning to his buddy, Sam Brownback, as a possible next [World] Bank president.

His development experience appears limited. He's an advocate of democracy assistance, piloting a bill to support opposition groups in Iran for example. He's also lambasted the international development community for its failure to use DDT in combating malaria.

We reckon that a Brownback candidacy would play well with Bush's base at home (there'd be rejoicing in the Corner); disastrously with pretty much everyone abroad.

Not sure how seriously Brownback is being considered, but worth watching...

Kathleen Sebelius, Gov of Kansas and a Democrat, would surely appoint a Democrat. A possible pick-up NO ONE expected.

ND: Bush's invasion

Bush's trip to ND is two-fold. 1. to get North Dakotans to pressure Dorgan and Conrad to back him on his Soc. Sec. rape. and 2. to begin the push against Conrad for re-election.

North Dakotans, turn your back on Shruby. He is only using you.

From the Grand Forks Herald:

Aides to Bush have said he plans to travel to North Dakota ... to push his Social Security plan and lobby Democratic senators, including Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D.

"I think he wants the citizens to put some pressure on the senators to back the Social Security plan," said Pam Younggren, a Republican chairwoman in Fargo.

Conrad and Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., said they are happy Bush is stopping in the state but said they do not support the idea of borrowing money to pay for private accounts.

"He certainly has the right to make his case, and I welcome him," Dorgan said. "But I feel strongly that it's a failed strategy to borrow money for Social Security."

MT: Burns to lazy to be Senator...anymore?

On Rice's confirmation: Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., didn't vote at all.

But Burns issued a statement Wednesday saying he supported her confirmation, adding: "She has served our country well in the past, and her great intellect and sound judgment will lend themselves well in her new position as secretary of state."

A spokesman for Burns said he missed the vote because there was no question that Rice would be confirmed by a wide margin and he was traveling to a conference on Senate business.

Apparently, confirming 4th in line to be president is just too much for the Senator.

MI: Stabenow steps up her power

From the Detroit News:

As she assumes a Democratic leadership position on Capitol Hill and gears for re-election battle next year, Sen. Debbie Stabenow has expanded her communications staff, hiring a helpmate of the Clintons and the Edwards-Kerry campaign to head it.

Filling the newly created $107,000 position of Stabenow's deputy chief of staff for communications is Karen Finney, former scheduler for President Bill Clinton; press secretary for the 2000 campaign of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton; and press secretary in 2004 for Elizabeth Edwards, wife of vice presidential nominee John Edwards.

Stabenow also hired Nanette Wilkin, a former Clinton administration speech writer and "rapid response" coordinator for Sen. Richard Durbin of Illinois, who now ranks second in Senate Democratic leadership, to fill a vacancy as deputy communications director.

Before bringing in heavy artillery, Stabenow already had an effective one-two punch with Communications Director Dave Lemmon, who previously worked for three other members of Congress, and Press Secretary Bob Meissner, a former Michigan newspaperman who was press secretary to U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Menominee.

That combination of positions has worked well for others...

Let's be sure it works for her.

NY: Nixon son-in-law v. Hillary?

Fomr Wake-up Call!:

Richard Nixon's son-in-law, Edward Cox, has told friends and GOP "insiders" that he is considering challenging Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) in '06 (New York Times).

MD: Sarbanes well positioned for re-election

DSCC reports that:

Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D) is “very well-positioned” for re-election should he choose to seek a record-shattering sixth term in 2006, an independent poll has found.

Fifty-six percent of the 402 Democrats surveyed by an independent polling firm said they would vote to re-elect him. Only 10 percent said they would vote to replace Sarbanes, while 34 percent said they would consider someone else.

The poll was conducted Jan. 3-8 by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies of Annapolis and had a 5 percent margin of error.

Sarbanes, who is already Maryland’s longest-serving Senator, has not said whether he will run again in 2006, when he will be 73 years old. But the poll predicted a spirited Democratic race to replace him in the event that he retires.

CT: Lieberman's possible primary challenger?

Atrios asks..

Paul Newman in '06?

Taking on Lieberman? That's the buzz...

NY: Here's another for Hillary

Westchester D.A. Jeanine Pirro (R) "is considering challenging" Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) in '06 (New York Daily News). Posted on Hotline's Wake-Up Call.

Previous Polling

I know this is really old, especially in the world of polling, but I thought I should just get it out there.

Polling Report found in December 16-19, 2004 over who voters would like to control congress.

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

That is nothing but good news early on going into the '06 elections.

NE: Nelson being cautious, preparing for re-election?

From MSNBC:

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., one of the dwindling number of “red state” Democratic senators and one who is up for re-election in less than two years, told MSNBC.com Wednesday he will vote to confirm Gonzales.

Nelson backs Gonzales
“I met with him for a considerable length of time to talk about some of the issues that have been raised and satisfied myself that he could be a capable attorney general,” Nelson said off the Senate floor after casting his vote for Rice.

Of the torture complicity charges against Gonzales, Nelson said, “I haven’t gathered that from my research, so I haven’t been persuaded.”

CT: Lieberman in solid position for re-election

From Newsday:

In a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month, 73 percent of the registered Connecticut Republicans surveyed gave him a thumbs up _ a percentage point higher than the approval rating he got from Democrats, but within the margin of sampling error.

UT: Hatch for Torture

Orrin Hatch endorsed torture today both by voting for Gonzales and speaking for the 10 members of the committee who voted for the nominee:


“He is a man of integrity, decency, honor,” said Mr. Hatch.

Seriously, I doubt the residents of Utah will look past this...but hey its another chance to get to them...

NY: Clinton v. Giuliani? Maybe...

NY GOP Chair Stephen Minarik "said yesterday that he planned to ask" Rudy Giuliani to challenge Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) in '06 (New York Times). From Hotline.

This may end up being a very exciting NY Sen. race...but we have no doubt that of all the scandals that Rudy has been part of..New Yorkers know them the best and will vote against him. I'll post polls if I see any...

CT: Liberal Blogosphere beginning to turn against Lieberman

Kos begins the tide of finding a "legitimate primary challenger to Lieberman " and that person might "garner serious netroot support" Here is his case against him...

Lieberman on rice:
Lieberman said voting against Rice as a protest of past disagreements over Iraq was futile, and urged senators to back Rice with an eye toward actions she can now take to improve the situation. "Give America's national interest the benefit of the doubt," Lieberman said.

And this:
Lieberman spoke passionately of Rice as a stalwart in the "world war with Islamic terrorism." He urged an end to political partisanship over Iraq, "particularly so when our nation is engaged in a war, a global war on terrorism, a war in Iraq in which Americans have already lost their lives in the cause of freedom and in protection of our security."

And my favorite:
Joseph Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat who strongly backed the war, urged a "resounding vote" for Rice to show "that we're together for what we're pursuing which is a successful conclusion to our involvement in Iraq and to the spread of freedom and democracy throughout the world."

He ends with "But does Connecticut truly deserve this neocon? "

I think that if CT can promise us a democrat (which they can) then we should find someone more inline with the democrats than with the bush-clan. We agree.

No on Gonzales

This site does not endorse torture. See statement here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/1/25/15437/3930

NJ: Corzine succesor

As Corzine is set to become the next Governor of NJ, the rumor mill has Rep. Robert Menendez, D-Hoboken will replace him as the next Senator from NJ.

FL: Nelson to face the she-devil

It's been highly rumored, but just to get it up on the site:

Rep. Katherine Harris, R-Sarasota, already indicating she will run for Nelson's seat.

It will be a sad day in the sunshine state, if floridians elect she-devil, election robber extrodinaire as their Senator. Republicans love her, we need to fight her. I will not sleep at night, knowing that Katherine Harris might be a Senator...let's stop her before she gets the chance to run...

MT: Burns-- hold him accountable

If he doesn't retire on his own, Montana residents surely should hold Burns accountable and force his retirement:

In 1999, Sen. Conrad Burns used the term "ragheads" when referring to Arabs.

Burns sits on the all powerful Appropriations Committee. Racists on the committee? wow.

MN: Dayton to face primary challenger?

Sorry for the lack of posts recently -- it was Birthday time and I was out of town...

This is from Bob-traitor-Novak but it has names listed...further increasing credibility to the oppositions.

Former Rep. Bill Luther is considering a Democratic primary challenge against Dayton. The
senator's Republican opponent is expected to be a well-funded Rep. Mark Kennedy.

NV: Ensign to vote for Nuclear storage at Yucca

According to the Pahrump Valley Times; Ensign is planning on voting for Energy Secretary Nominee Samuel Bodman.

Get ready Nevadans...

"Energy secretary nominee Samuel Bodman said Wednesday he will "enthusiastically follow through" to continue developing a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain."

MT: Burns taking on Washington voters

Conrad Burns (R): Thinks he can ursurp the voters' intention of Washington state. Would the weakening Republican party in Montana really want to aline themselves with Dino Rossi?

"Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., took Rossi aside to tell him that the GOP would help him in his battle to overturn the gubernatorial election."

MI: Stabenow on safe ground

Stabenow, rumored to be the GOP's top target, sounds like it isn't a contest at all.

FROM THE DETROIT NEWS:

Stabenow had a favorable-unfavorable rating of 56-25 percent. Four years ago, it was 52-22 percent.

Match-ups with specific potential challengers 22 months before an election are meaningless other than to gauge the strength or weakness in various regions for an incumbent and those pondering a challenge. Stabenow did well in three such matches.

She had 20-plus percentage point leads over ex-U.S. Rep. Nick Smith of Addison and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, whose names were not well recognized.

Republican National Committeeman Chuck Yob, who Wednesday was elected the vice chairman of the Republican National Committee for the Midwest, said he believes Bouchard will run for the Senate. Stabenow prevailed 52-41 percent when matched statewide with Miller, the former secretary of state whose name was recognized by about 90 percent of those surveyed. Stabenow trailed in West Michigan but was superior in the southeast, including 66-29 percent in Macomb County; 62-30 percent in Wayne County and 50-41 percent in Oakland County, which once was a GOP stronghold.

NE: Nelson the power player

Hopefully Nelson can convince Nebraskans what Dashcle wasn't able to do. By re-electing a powerful Senator a sparsely populated state like Nebraska actually may have a voice. Nebraskans: Don't make the same mistake South Dakotans did last November.

"Nebraska's junior senator, Ben Nelson, suddenly finds himself in an elite crowd. He's being viewed as a key player on Capitol Hill as President Bush begins his second term."

MN: Dayton gets another challenger

"Rep. Gil Gutknecht said Thursday he is considering running for U.S. Senate next year, putting his name on a list of potential Republican candidates that already includes fellow Minnesota Rep. Mark Kennedy.

Gutknecht, a 10-year House veteran, has staked out an independent position on some issues, particularly on allowing Americans to import drugs from Canada."

Here is a round-up of his ratings (thanks to issues2000.org...what a winner.)

Rated 8% by the NEA (Dec 2003)
Rated 30% by CURE, indicating anti-rehabilitation crime votes. (Dec 2000)
Rated 7% by the ACLU (Dec 2002)
Rated 0% by NARAL,(Dec 2003)
Rated 5% by the LCV(Dec 2003)
Rated 21% by the AFL-CIO, indicating an anti-labor voting record. (Dec 2003)

Rated 100% by the Christian Coalition(Dec 2003)
Rated A by the NRA, indicating a pro-gun rights voting record. (Dec 2003)

MN: Dayton adds his name to Boxer, Kerry

"The Minnesota Democrat said he knows Rice's confirmation by the Senate is assured. But he says he'll cast a "protest vote" against her and others in the Bush administration for misleading the country about Iraq."

And according to the recent ABC/Post poll showing 58% of people dissaprove of the war in Iraq...Dayton will be one of the voices in history who voiced his opposition.

Senate...we need it Blue

The 2006 election could be the tipping point back to a blue senate, a Democratic one. There is talk that we, as democrats, need a voice, we need a message. Something that would convey our beliefs, stand up to the right, and pack our everything into a small concise phrase.

We should do this and we can. It isn't creating a contrived election message...it isn't looking for that perfect soundbite. It is something that would give us the edge, give us the first look, and keep America's attention.

I post this not to submit my perfect solution, but to start the grassroots discussion on this topic. What is it we REALLY believe in, what is it we want people to know about and fight/vote for. This will not only apply to the Senate but it will carry its weight for the House and ultimately the Presidency.

(Cross posted over at fromtheroots.org)

PA: Casey gaining support

Speaking of Casey, Harrisburg Mayor Stephen R. Reed, said, "We salute you publicly as our new state treasurer and future U.S. Senator," to loud applause.

Senate Minority Leader Robert J. Mellow, D-Lackawanna, said, "Bob Casey could be the future U.S. senator if he wants to be ...

From pennlive.com

PA: "If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen."

That's what Santorum said in a speech recently. Oh, Ricky -- if you think it is hot now...this election is just getting started.

"What I'm concerned about is we have some in our society today who say you can come to the public square influenced by anything other than faith. If you are influenced by faith, somehow that is illegitimate and your faith can only be private," he explained shortly before he took the stage at the seminary. "I think that is a very dangerous thing because it leaves the public square with sort of a secular world."

Secular world? I think we want a secular government and so does the Constitution. geez...he'll be toast. Wonder what his boiling point is...

RI: Chafee in real trouble

Wake-up Call! has from the Providence Journal:

A Mellman Group (D) poll for the DSCC shows Rep. James Langevin (D) leading Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) among regis. RI voters 52%-32% in the '06 race for SEN.

Uh-- oh... We'll take him if he switches...but if not, start searching those wanted ads Sen. Looks like we will have a new Democratic Senator from RI, either way.

PA: Santorum ready to take on Iran

Santorum as mentioned in "The Progressive" that he introduced legislation to take on Iran. Now, think the Pennsylvanians would like to hear that? Doubt it.

"Senator Rick Santorum, Republican of Pennsylvania, introduced a bill calling upon "the United States to support regime change for the Islamic Republic of Iran and to promote the transition to a democratic government to replace that regime." The bill did not pass out of committee, but Santorum reportedly plans to reintroduce it early in this session of Congress."

Watch for it...

MS: Lott -- Bush gift

As the official gift from the American people to W. at the inaguration is announced. How about spend that $ and the other $40 million for the inaguration on some armor for a hummer or some medicine for AIDS stricken Africa, tsunami victims...or hit Lott at home for the 19.9% (highest in the nation) of the state of Mississippi living in poverty, how about some help for them?

"Senator Trent Lott and the members of the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies (JCCIC) will present to the President and Vice President the American people's official gift in honor of their Inauguration. The gifts, a set of priceless, one-of-a-kind cut crystal hurricane lamps, were commissioned by the JCCIC and will be presented on behalf of the nation to the President and Vice President at the Inaugural Luncheon following the swearing in ceremony at the U.S. Capitol."

MD: Sarbanes' questions Rice

Way to go...let's hope she listens.

"The secretary who adopts a unilateralist approach in the international environment may miss important opportunities to prevent conflicts and to build alliances,'' Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat of Maryland, told Rice. ``And in that regard I just note that it's not enough to have the ear of the president. I think the secretary of State must also win the ear of the world.''

Sarbanes should glide to re-election...

Focus on the (Stepford) Family releases scorecard

Oh wow...thanks. Focus on the Family released their scorecard for the Senate.

""In the Senate, Majority Leader Bill Frist, and Republican Conference Chair Rick Santorum both scored 100 percent,"

Ummm.... yeah. More reason to fight harder to make sure they do not return to the Senate.

Note: 19 Senators and 87 Congressman received perfect 100% scores. Gross.

Oh and also...they call their top scorers "True Blues" ... that's our color. Don't let them try to steal that too.

NY: Clinton possible contender says NO

Pataki says he isn't interested in the NY Senate seat, currently held by Sen. Clinton (D).

Newsday has:

"I do not want to be a United States senator," Pataki said. "I have a job that I am very proud to have and very grateful to the people of New York because they have given me this tremendous honor of being their governor."

test

test

NE: White House puts on pressure.

Nelson - NE - (D) has been getting pressure from the White House to cross the aisle on social security. Perhaps for a trade for a less bloody re-election fight? Don't count on it Benny.

The Hill has:

"Congressional observers say that for the president to succeed he will have to court a handful of key lawmakers who might signal interest in reaching an accommodation.

One likely target is Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), who supported the president’s 2001 tax cut and is up for reelection this year. Bush tapped Nebraska Gov."

MULTIPLE STATES: Latest Update

Here is the latest round-up from over at dailykos.com by kos. Wouldn't it be nice to say goodbye to Santorum. Polls look good for us up in PA. Agreeing with us, kos notes if Chafee switched his party -- he may get another term.

A poll (DSCC, probably) pitting various Democrats against Rick Santorum has generated some buzz in DC political circles. The exact numbers are hazy, but hover in the 52-38 range. The candidates? Bob Casey Jr. at 52 percent, and Santorum at 38. In fact, according to the poll, Casey would beat Rendell in a primary battle. Thankfully, that won't happen as Rendell is firmly focused on reelection to a second term as governor.
Santorum is quite obviously Democratic target numero uno, and there's no doubt that Santorum is far too conservative for Pennsylvania. He belongs more in Oklahoma with Wacky Tom Coburn than in moderate PA.

Retirements

Elsewhere on the Senate map, we've already talked about rumors that Olympia Snowe may be on the verge of retirement. Conrad Burns in Montana is also reportedly seeking a golden parachute (read: K Street firm) as the resurgent Montana Dems gun for the seat. We'll have a GOP open seat in Texas (Hutchinson is running for governor), but given the state of the Texas Democratic Party, that one is likely out of reach. Another GOP open seat in Tennessee (Frist is retiring to run for president) is a better opportunity.

That's four potential open seats on the Republican side. Dems are really hoping to hold down the fort, though they are looking nervously at Maryland's Paul Sarbanes and West Virginia's Robert Byrd. A Byrd retirement, in particular, would be problematic. Corzine is retiring to run for governor, so we'll have a Jersey open seat to defend, which shouldn't be too tough.

Republican Incumbents

As far as GOP incumbents are concerned, Snowe (if she stays put) and RI's Lincoln Chafee are expected to get strong challenges. It seems top Dems are ready to go after their moderates taking a page out of the GOP playbook. Chafee, in particular, is about to be squeezed from all directions. In a hard-blue state, he is already being challenged by Democratic secretary of state Matt Brown from the left, and will face a primary challenge from the right from a Club for Growth-backed candidate. His best survival bet may very well be to switch parties.

Dems are also looking at Ensign in Nevada (Reid would probably love to beat his ass) and Kyl in Arizona. Allen in Virginia could potentially be a top-tier battle if Gov. Mark Warner opts for the Senate rather than a 2008 presidential bid.

Democratic incumbents

As for our incumbents, GOP targets number one and two are MN's Mark Dayton and FL's Bill Nelson. Both of these will be tough races, but assuming Byrd stays put, they should be the only scary races. Stabenow in Michigan and Cantwell in Washington, however, would be races to watch. And we can never rest with our deep-red state senators, like Ben Nelson in Nebraska and Kent Conrad in North Dakota. And there's always Lieberman, which may be facing a primary challenge.

One side effect of losing all our senate races in the South is that we don't have many to defend anymore. Only Florida's Nelson and Robert Byrd qualify, and neither is from a deep-South state.

Scorecard from HRC

I plan to post various scorecards from various organization for Senators up for re-election.

I'll start with the Human Rights Campaign (you can find specific votes on HRC's website)

And...the real party of fairness, values and equality becomes obvious.

Corzine, NJ (D) - 100%
Dayton, MN (D) -100%
Kennedy, MA (D) -100%
Cantwell, WA (D) - 88%
Chafee, RI (R) - 88%
Clinton, NY (D) - 88%
Lieberman, CT (D) -88%
Jeffords, VT (I) -86%
Stabenow, MI (D) - 88%
Akaka, HI (D) - 75%
Bingaman, NM (D) - 75%
Carper, DE (D) -63%
Feinstein, CA (D) -75%
Nelson, FL (D) -75%
Sarbanes, MD (D) -75%
Carper, DE (D) -63%
Kohl, WI (D) - 50%
Snowe, ME (R) -50%
Conrad, ND (D) - 38%
DeWine, OH (R) - 25%
Ensign, NV (R) - 25%
Nelson, NE (D) - 25%
Allen, VA (R) - 13%
Byrd, WV (D) - 13%
Lugar, IN (R) -13%
Burns, MT (R) - 0%
Frist, TN (R) -0%
Hatch, UT (R) - 0%
Hutchison, TX (R) - 0%
Kyl, AZ (R) - 0%
Lott, MS (R) -0%
Santorum, PA (R) - 0%
Talent, MO (R) -0%
Thomas, WY (R) - 0%

MN: Dayton - Financial Advisor Shake-up

"Dayton is foregoing another cash source for incumbents by refusing to take political action committee money. His challenging financial situation is one reason Republicans see him as a vulnerable incumbent. Rep. Mark Kennedy, R-Minn., is among those eying a challenge."

"Dayton's finance director, Dinah Dale, left the campaign last month, and his national fund-raising consultant, Shari Yost, left in October. Both changes were described as "mutual" by all three involved.

Dayton, a Minnesota Democrat, has brought in Kim Kauffman, who was a top fund-raiser for last year's failed Senate campaign of North Carolina Democrat Erskine Bowles, to replace Yost. He has not yet hired a replacement for Dale."

No official challenger yet, but as above, Kennedy is eyeing the spot...and as the article also notes, Shrum has been hired by Dayton as well.

VA: Warner vs. Allen

Speculation grows -- that Warner (barred from running for re-elections) will challenge Sen. Allen (R) for the Senate seat. Warner is hugely popular in VA and is also seen as a likely 2008 candidate for the top job. I think we can unseat Allen here, folks.

http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=80429&ran=202783

Update: MI

Miller has abandoned the idea to challenge Stabenow in 06. She was probably the MI GOP's best bet.

Story is here: http://www.michigandaily.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2005/01/12/41e513e7aebd1

But, Keith Butler moves in for the spotlight.

"On December 31, 2004, Keith Butler announced that he is exploring a run for the U.S. Senate in 2006. Exploratory efforts are well under way. "

Michigan already heating up...

Detroit Free Press has:

Debbie Stabenow already has her challenger, thanks to the W.

"President George W. Bush smiled Friday when he introduced U.S. Rep. Candice Miller to a crowd at the Macomb Center for the Performing Arts... Bush came to Macomb County -- at least in part -- to tout Miller as a challenger to Michigan's Democratic junior senator, Debbie Stabenow, in 2006.

Two other Republicans, former U.S. Rep. Nick Smith and the Rev. Keith Butler, a former Detroit City Council member, are considering running for the Republican nomination."

As the article mentions -- When Miller ran for Sec. of State she took all 83 of the Michigan's counties... Also, FYI Stabenow took the seat in 2000 from the inclumbant Spencer "let me drill in your front yard" Abraham by 50% of the vote, and keep in mind that Kerry won this state by 3% - Gore by 4%.

http://www.freep.com/news/mich/miller8e_20050108.htm

National Recruiting Has Begun

From SFgate.com:

The DSCC has selected it's recruiters for 2006:

"The DSCC has recruited Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, a rising star in the party who was elected in November, as well as Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Ron Wyden of Oregon and Barbara Boxer of California to raise money, line up candidates and develop 2006 election strategies for their regions."

More in the story about DNC donations to the DSCC.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2005/01/06/national1239EST0574.DTL

2006 Outlook

Thanks to 'senate2006' over at MyDD for this early (December) outlook:

+++  Safe Republican +++

Hatch (UT) -- This seat is Hatch's as long as he wants it.  If Hatch retires, the only Utah Dem with a prayer is Rep. Jim Matheson.  But, Utah Republicans have a very deep bench and even Matheson would face an uphill battle.  Safe Republican.

Lugar (IN) --  Lugar is an institution and the Indiana Democratic Party is reeling from the 2004 losses of incumbent Gov. Joe Kernan and incumbent Rep. Baron Hill.  Democrats hold just two of the state's nine House seats.  Safe Republican.

Thomas (WY) -- Wyoming is a very conservative state.  WY Dems only chance: Thomas retires, Repubs nominate a weak candidate like Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dems nominate a strong candidate like Gov. Dave Freudenthal.  Warning: an open seat, a strong Dem and a weak Repub doesn't mean victory in an intensely partisan state.  Just ask Brad Carson (D-OK).  Safe Republican.

+++ Likely Republican +++

Allen (VA) -- Allen is riding high in the national Republican party.  He's fresh off a successful tenure as Chair of the NRSC, a strong potential WH '08 candidate and a popular former Governor in a Republican leaning state.  If popular Gov. Mark Warner (D) runs, downgrade this seat to "Lean Republican," if he doesn't, upgrade it to "Safe Republican."

DeWine (OH) -- The wide open race to replace controversial, term limited Gov. Bob Taft (R) will be the marquee statewide contest in 2006.  Many of Ohio's heavy hitting Dems (like Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, former AG/'98 candidate Lee Fisher, Akron Mayor Don Plusquellic, former Cincinnati Mayor/Talk Show Host Jerry Springer, and Rep. Ted Strickland) are all eyeing the Governor's mansion.  If a high profile Dem emerges, downgrade this swing state Senate seat to "Lean Republican."

Ensign (NV) -- Nevada's rapid demographic changes narrowly favor the Dems.  But, just like Ohio, many of Nevada's big name Dems are eyeing term limited Gov. Kenny Guinn's job.  Ensign is vulnerable if popular Rep. Shelley Berkley takes the plunge.

Kyl (AZ) -- Rumor has it that Kyl will be challenged by State Democratic Chair Jim Pederson.  If Pederson runs a good campaign, the nation's eyes will be on this swing state on Election Day as Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) will likely be challenged by popular ex-TV sportscaster, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R).  Don't underestimate the power of incumbency and Arizona's demographics still slightly favor the Republicans.  Likely Republican.

Lott (MS) -- Reports of Lott's demise have been greatly exagerated.  Yes, the gaffe that cost him his leadership position hurt his image.  But, red Mississippi will send him back to the Senate in 2006.  Do racist remarks hurt southern politicians?  Ask Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd.  Likely Republican.

Snowe (ME) -- Despite being a Republican in blue Maine, Moderate GOP Senator Olympia Snowe should be safe.  Gov. John Baldacci (D), Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Rep. Mike Michaud (D) could make the race interesting, but, there's no indication that any of them, or anyone else for that matter, are interested in challenging the popular moderate.  If a strong challenger does emerge, downgrade this blue state seat to Lean Republican.

Talent (MO) -- If the Dems field a strong candidate, Freshman Sen. Jim Talent might be in trouble.  Fortunately for him, 2004 was a good year for Missouri Repubs as Kerry abandoned the state early, Sen. Kit Bond (R) won big in what was expected to be a close race and the Repubs took back the Governor's mansion.  If Ex-Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell or State Auditor/'04 Gubernatorial Nominee Claire McCaskill run, downgrade to Lean Republican.

+++ Lean Republican +++

Burns (MT) -- Deep red Montana is, ever so slightly, trending blue.  In 2004, Dems won control over the Montana state Senate and Brian Schweitzer (D) was elected Governor.  Gov.-elect Schweitzer gave Burns a run for his money in 2000 and Montana already has one Democratic Senator, Max Baucus.  If the riding high Montana Dems nominate a strong candidate, this race could be close, if they don't, upgrade to Likely Republican.

Chafee (RI) -- Moderate GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee could face challenges from the right and the left.  Conservatives are unhappy with Chafee's moderate positions and liberals are smelling blood in this blue state.  On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Matt Brown, Rep. Patrick Kennedy and Rep. James Langevin could pose a formidable challenge to Chafee, especially if he's bruised or defeated in a primary.  If Kennedy, gives up a seat on the Appropriations Committee to run against Chafee, downgrade to Toss Up.

Hutchison (open seat TX) -- The good news is that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison will likely leave the Senate to challenge Gov. Rick Perry (R). The bad news is that Texas is increasingly Republican and even a well known Democrat will likely have a tough time overcoming this state's partisanship.

Santorum (PA) -- Democrats would love to defeat this right winger in a lean blue swing state.  '04 nominee/ex. Rep. Joe Hoeffel and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer are considered the likely candidates.  There's little doubt that both sides will spend millions and this race will come down to the wire.  But, I give Santorum the edge because he's a tenacious campaigner and the Dems aren't likely to field an all star challenger.

+++ Toss-Up +++

Frist (open seat TN) -- Can Democrats still win in the South?  This race may give us the answer.  With Frist retiring to focus on his run for the White House, the media has anointed Rep. Harold Ford (D) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R) as the very early frontrunners in their likely-to-be-contested primaries.  Will Ford, the moderate DLC poster boy, be able to win in this red state?  We'll see.

+++ Lean Democratic +++

Corzine (open seat NJ) -- Corzine is running for Governor and the field for his Senate seat is wide open.  Look for a Democrat to prevail in this blue state, but, in the wild world of New Jersey politics, anything is possible.

Dayton (MN) -- The national GOP has Freshman Sen. Mark Dayton in their cross hairs.  Popular Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) has proven himself a winner in a lean Dem district and the GOP is priming him for a run against a vulnerable incumbent.  Traditionally blue Minnesota has trended Republican of late, but, remained in Kerry's column in 2004.  Lean Democratic.

Kohl (WI) -- If popular former Governor/former HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson enters the race, downgrade to Toss Up.  Otherwise, upgrade to Likely Democratic.  Kohl has the money to drown just about any challenger.

Nelson (NE) -- Veteran Sen. Ben Nelson should thank President Bush.  He tapped his potential 2006 challenger, popular Gov. Mike Johanns, to head the Department of Agriculture.  If Rep. Tom Osborne tosses his hat in the ring, Nelson would likely lose, but, there's no indication that Osborne is interested in the Senate seat.  Potential Nelson challengers include Attorney General Jon Bruning and Rep.-elect Jeff Fortenberry.

Nelson (FL) -- Veteran Sen. and former Astronaut Bill Nelson is likely to face a tough race in 2006, especially if popular Gov. Jeb Bush decides to run.  The Democrats desperately need to keep Florida competitive and would be wise to heavily invest in the Florida Democratic Party. If Nelson loses, and the Democrats lose the open race for Governor, there won't be a single Democrat that holds a statewide office.

Stabenow (MI) -- Word has it that President Bush wants the popular Rep./ex-Sec. of State Candice Miller to challenge Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow in this swing state.  Miller is the only politician in state history to win all 83 Michigan counties, and with strong support from the White House, has potential to defeat Stabenow.

+++ Likely Democratic +++

Byrd (WV) -- Despite his liberal record, Sen. Robert Byrd is a West Virginia institution and will have his seat as long as he wants it.  If Byrd choses to retire, downgrade this seat to the Toss Up category.

Cantwell (WA) -- Sen. Patti Murray easily won re-election in a sleeper over a formidable opponent.  Republicans thought that it would be easier to defeat Murray than Cantwell.  If Murray can win easily, Cantwell should cruise to re-election.

Clinton (NY) -- HRC should not be underestimated.  She has a top notch campaign team and has been working to improve her reputation amongst even conservative constituents.  If Gov. George Pataki or former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani chose to run, downgrade to Lean Democratic.  Otherwise, Hillary will coast to victory, well positioned for her WH '08 bid.

Conrad (ND) -- Fellow Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and at large Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) coasted to re-election this year and there's no indication that Conrad won't do the same in 2006.

Feinstein (CA) -- If Feinstein retires, downgrade to Toss Up.  Otherwise, she should be able to hold the seat.

Lieberman (CT) -- Neither the right or the left love Lieberman, but, he's a Connecticut institution.  He should be able to fend off any primary challenge and will easily defeat whoever the Republicans nominate in this blue state.  If he choses to retire, or join President Bush's cabinet, this seat will be in play.

Sarbanes (MD) -- If Sarbanes retires, downgrade to Lean Democratic.  If he doesn't retire, he should coast to re-election, if he does, the Maryland Democratic Party has a deep bench and are likely to field a candidate that will hold the seat for the Dems.

+++ Safe Democratic +++

Akaka (HI) -- This seat is Akaka's as long as he wants it.  And, he wants it.

Bingaman (NM) -- The Republicans have two politicians capable of winning this seat: Reps. Heather Wilson & Steve Pearce.  Both are waiting for either Sen. Bingaman or Sen. Dominici to retire.  There's no indication that Bingaman will retire, but, if he does and Wilson/Pearce chose to run, downgrade this seat to Toss Up.

Carper (DE) -- Tom Carper will coast to re-election.

Kennedy (MA) -- If Ted Kennedy wants this Senate seat, it's his.  If he doesn't, the Massachusetts Democrats will field a strong candidate to keep this seat blue.

+++ Safe Independent +++

Jeffords (VT) -- Democrats like Jeffords. Jeffords could face opposition from angry Republicans that think he betrayed the party by switching to independent and caucusing with the Democrats, but, in a deep blue state that elected at large socialist Rep. Bernie Sanders (I), he shouldn't worry too much.

http://senate2006.mydd.com/

Senate Races 2006

Here is a quick run-down of Senators up for re-election in 2006:

DEM:
Dan Akaka, HI
Jeff Bingaman, NM
Robert Byrd, West VA
Maria Cantwell, WA
Tom Carper, DE
Hilary Clinton, NY
Kent Conrad, ND
Jon Corzine, NJ
Mark Dayton, MN
Dianne Feinstein, CA
Ted Kennedy, MA
Herb Kohl, WI
Joe Lieberman, CT
Ben Nelson, NE
Bill Nelson, FL
Paul Sarbanes, MD
Debbie Stabenow, MI

REPUBLICANS
George Allen, VA
Conrad Burns, MT
Lincoln Chafee, RI
Mike DeWine, OH
John Ensign, NV
Bill Frist, TN
Orrin Hatch, UT
Kay Hutchison, TX
Jon Kyl, AZ
Trent Lott, MS
Dick Lugar, IN
Rick Santorum, PA
Olympia Snowe, ME
Jim Talent, MO
Craig Thomas, WY

IND:
Jim Jeffords, VT

Welcome

Hello All!

This blog's mission is to: Disseminate information and strategy for creating and retaining a democratic Senate. Please post ideas and comments on this blog. Thanks! -demlen